Election Polling Examined Intelligently

Last May, 12 polling companies were active during the federal election, using more methods to gauge the election intentions of Canadians than ever before. The poll closest to the actual election is the one that determines which pollster is the most accurate. Turns out, those who issued a final poll the weekend before the election were within the margin of error for most if not all parties: basically a tie.

The MRIA Ottawa Chapter organized a unique, intelligent post mortem for September 22 at the National Arts Centre: 8 pollsters are coming together to discuss lessons learned, from methodology questions relating to data gathering to question construction.  This is an important discussion the industry and Canadians need to have: only when election polling is done to the highest standards can it serve the public good. The May election was an awesome social research lab with the seismic shift (Orange Crush anyone?) taking place on the political landscape. Learning from these real-life events, and how researchers fared providing insight for citizens, is crucial in a democracy.

3 days ago, with the Ontario election on - and polling back in the spotlight, too - two staffers at IPSOS Reid,  the largest and most powerful research firm in Canada decided to lash out at everyone else in the entire industry; while it makes for fine pundit fodder the motivations haven't been explained. Luckily, MRIA has issued a lucid response outlining the validity of various methods in polling and marketing research in general and affirming the integrity of Canadian marketing researchers.

MRIA Ottawa stands for intelligent discussion, insightful analysis and open discourse.

October 11, 2011 Update: View the panelists' presentations.